INTELLECTUAL HISTORY

James Franklin, THE SCIENCE OF CONJECTURE: EVIDENCE AND PROBABILITY BEFORE PASCAL (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001)

Lorraine Daston, CLASSICAL PROBABILITY IN THE ENLIGHTENMENT (Princeton, 1988)

William L. Twining, THEORIES OF EVIDENCE: BENTHAM AND WIGMORE (1985)

George Fisher, The Jury's Rise as Lie Detector, , 107 Yale L. J. 575 (1997)

Peter Murhpy, EVIDENCE, PROOF, AND FACTS: A BOOK OF SOURCES (Oxford, 2003)

INSTITUTIONAL SETTING

Mirjan R. Damaška, EVIDENCE LAW ADRIFT (Yale U. Press, 1997)

GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO LOGIC

James D. McCawley, EVERYTHING THAT LINGUISTS HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT LOGIC* *but were ashamed to ask (2nd ed., 1993)

INFERENCE, IF-THEN LOGIC & THE LOGIC OF UNCERTAINTY

J.S. Covington, Jr., THE STRUCTURE OF LEGAL ARGUMENT AND PROOF (2nd ed., 2006)

Brian Skyrms, CHOICE & CHANCE: AN INTRODUCTION TO INDUCTIVE LOGIC (4th ed., 2000)

Henry E. Kyburg, Jr. & Choh Man Teng, UNCERTAIN INFERENCE (2001)

Richard Lowry, THE ARCHITECTURE OF CHANCE: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE LOGIC AND ARITHMETIC OF PROBABILITY (Oxford, 1989)

INFERENCE, INTUITION & COMMON SENSE

Old Chief v. United States, 519 U.S. 172 (1997) (assessment of evidence involves more than "linear reasoning")

Judge Jack B. Weinstein in United States v. Shonubi, 895 F.Supp. 460 (E.D.N.Y. 1995) (lengthy and interesting opinion includes discussion of role of judicial judgment and discretion in assessment of evidence) (caveat emptor: P. Tillers served as a court-appointed expert witness in this case)

Ronald J.Allen, Common Sense, Rationality, and the Legal Process, in Marilyn MacCrimmon & Peter Tillers, eds., The Dynamics of Judicial Proof: Computation, Logic, and Common Sense (Physica- & Springer-Verlag, 2002)

Marilyn MacCrimmon, What Is "Common" about Common Sense? Cautionary Tales for Travelers Crossing Disciplinary Boundaries, in Marilyn MacCrimmon & Peter Tillers, eds., The Dynamics of Judicial Proof: Computation, Logic, and Common Sense (Physica- & Springer-Verlag, 2002)

The Cycorp Project (formalized common sense becomes profitable -- and practicable?)

Andrew E. Taslitz, Abuse Excuses and the Logic and Politics of Expert Relevance, 49 Hastings L.J. 1039 (1998) (emphasis on holism)

Michael S. Pardo, Comment: Juridical Proof, Evidence, and Pragmatic Meaning: Toward Evidentiary Holism, 95 Nw. U.L. Rev. 399 (2000)

INFERENCE, LANGUAGE & FUZZY THINKING

VAGUENESS IN LANGUAGE & LEGAL LANGUAGE (conceptual vagueness)

Lon L. Fuller, THE MORALITY OF LAW (Yale, 1st ed., 1969, 2nd ed., 1977)

Edward Levi, An Introduction to Legal Reasoning (1962)

FUZZY & ROUGH SETS

Lotfi Zadeh, Fuzzy Sets, 8 Information & Control 338 (1965)

Susan Haack, DEVIANT LOGIC, FUZZY LOGIC: BEYOND THE FORMALISM (1974 & 1996)

Lotfi Zadeh, "From Computing with Numbers to Computing with Words -- From Manipulation of Measurements to Manipulation of Perceptions," 45 IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems 105 (1999)

Lotfi Zadeh, "Toward a Generalized Theory of Uncertainty (GTU) - An Outline" (2005)

GESTALT PSYCHOLOGY, COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, MODERN BEHAVIORAL PSYCHOLOGY & COGNATE PERSPECTIVES ON REAL-WORLD INFERENCE

Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin & Daniel Kahneman, eds., HEURISTICS AND BIASES: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INTUITIVE JUDGMENT (Cambridge U. Press, 2002)

Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, CHOICES, VALUES, AND FRAMES (2000)

INFERENCE & PERCEPTION

Alva Noë & Evan Thompson, VISION AND MIND: SELECTED READINGS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PERCEPTION (MIT Press, 2002)

Irvin Rock, THE LOGIC OF PERCEPTION (MIT Press, 1983)

VISUAL PERCEPTION: http://kybele.psych.cornell.edu/~edelman/Course/perception/perception.html

Richard L. Gregory, Knowledge in Perception and Illusion

Tillers, Blog, Monday, June 02, 2003 Reason and Intuition in the Assessment of Evidence in Litigation

Hermann von Helmholtz, 1866/1962 Treatise on Physiological Optics volume 2, translated by J P L Southall (New York: Dover) pp 264--301 [originally published as Handbuch der physiologischen Optik (1866, Leipzig: Voss)]

Claire F. Michaels and Claudio Carello, DIRECT PERCEPTION (1981)

Patrick McDonald on Helmholtz

PROBABILITY THEORY & INFERENCE

Alan Hájek, Interpretations of Probability, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2003 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.)

THOMAS BAYES' ESSAY!

Laurence Tribe, Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Trial Process, 84 Harvard Law Review 1329 (1971)

Richard Lempert, Modeling Relevance, 75 Michigan Law Review 1021 (1977)

Richard Lempert, The New Evidence Scholarship: Analyzing the Process of Proof, 66 Boston University Law Review (1986 )

Thomas D. Lyon & Jonathan J. Koehler, The Relevance Ratio: Evaluating the Probative Value of Expert Testimony in Child Sexual Abuse Cases, 82 Cornell Law Review 43 (1996)

Bernard Robertson & G.A. Vignaux, INTERPRETING EVIDENCE (Wiley, 1995)

Peter Tillers & Eric Green, eds., PROBABILITY AND INFERENCE IN THE LAW OF EVIDENCE; THE USES AND LIMITS OF BAYESIANISM (1988)

STATISTICAL INFERENCE

Richard Lowry, THE ARCHITECTURE OF CHANCE: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE LOGIC AND ARITHMETIC OF PROBABILITY (Oxford, 1989) (focus on probability in statistics)

Koehler on Background Statistics in the Courtroom

Charles O. Shonubi's Saga

P. Tillers, United States v. Shonubi: A Statistical Oddity?

Colyvan, Ferson & Regan, Is It a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class?

P. Tillers, If Wishes Were Horses

State v. Claflin, 38 Wash. App. 847, 852; 690 P. 2d 1186 (Wash. App. 1984) (testimony that 43 percent of child molestations were committed by "father-figures," in a case where defendant was a father-figure, was "extremely prejudicial and should not have been admitted")

State v. Steward, 34 Wash. App. 221, 223-4; 660 P. 2d 278, 280 (1983) (testimony that the perpetrator in 8 out of 16 child abuse cases in which serious injuries "were inflicted by either live in or babysitting boy friends," in a case where defendant was a babysitting boyfriend, was "certainly highly prejudicial").

Daniel Shaviro, Statistical Probability Evidence and the Appearance of Justice, 103 Harvard Law Review 530 (1989)

BACONIAN INFERENCE

John Maynard Keynes, A TREATISE ON PROBABILITY (Macmillan and Co., 1921)

L.J. Cohen, THE PROBABLE AND THE PROVABLE (1977)

INFERENCE & DISCOVERY

KARL R. POPPER, THE LOGIC OF SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY

Karl Popper, CONJECTURES AND REFUTATIONS: THE GROWTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE (Basic Books, 1962)

Arthur Koestler, THE ACT OF CREATION (Reissue edition, 1990)

Charles S. Peirce: books & online extracts

Umberto Eco & Thomas Sebeok, eds., THE SIGN OF THREE: DUPIN, HOLMES, PEIRCE (Indiana U. Press, 1983, 1988)

John Josephson & Susan Josephson, ABDUCTIVE INFERENCE: COMPUTATION, PHILOSOPHY, TECHNOLOGY (Cambridge U. Press, 1994) (download the elegant discussion of abduction in Chapter 1 of this book by clicking on this link)

Lorenzo Magnani, ABDUCTION, REASON, AND SCIENCE: PROCESSES OF DISCOVERY AND EXPLANATION (2001)

D. Binder & P. Bergman, FACT INVESTIGATION: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO PROOF (1984)

P. Tillers & D. Schum, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, 24 University of California at Davis Law Review 931 (1991)

MarshalPlan 2.2

COMPLEX (multistage) INFERENCE

P. Tillers, Webs of Things in the Mind: A New Science of Evidence, (review essay), 87 Michigan Law Review 1225 (1989)

D. Schum, EVIDENTIAL FOUNDATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC REASONING (Wylie, 1994)

Joseph Kadane & David Schum, A PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE SACCO AND VANZETTI EVIDENCE (Wiley, 1996)

Terence Anderson & William Twining, ANALYSIS OF EVIDENCE (Little, Brown & Co., 1991 or 2d ed., Northwestern U. Press, 1998)

INTRODUCTION TO GRAPHS

which are very important for an understanding of some important theories of evidence and inference

INFERENCE & ARGUMENTATION THEORY

Chaïm Perelman, THE NEW RHETORIC: A TREATISE ON ARGUMENTATION (trans., John Wilkinson, University of Notre Dame Press, December 1969)

Stephen Toulmin, THE USES OF ARGUMENT (1958; 1st paperback ed., 1964)

John L. Pollock, COGNITIVE CARPENTRY (1995)

Douglas Walton, LEGAL ARGUMENTATION AND EVIDENCE (2002)

Paul A. Kirschner, Simon J. Buckingham Shum & Chad S. Carr, eds., VISUALIZING ARGUMENTATION: SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR COLLABORATIVE AND EDUCATIONAL SENSE-MAKING (2003)

Rationale software (trial version), available here

VALUES & INFERENCE

Robert P. Burns, A THEORY OF THE TRIAL (1999)

David T. Wasserman, The Morality of Statistical Proof and the Risk of Mistaken Liability, 13 Cardozo Law Review 935 (1991) (base rates are immoral because they offend a defendant's right to be treated as an individual)

Alvin I. Goldman, KNOWLEDGE IN A SOCIAL WORLD (1999)

INFERENCE, PREFERENCE & CHOICE

Richard Jeffrey, THE LOGIC OF DECISION (University of Chicago Press; 1966; 2nd ed., 1983)

Richard A. Posner, An Economic Approach to the Law of Evidence, 51 Stanford Law Review 1477 (1999) & draft version, Olin Law & Economics Working Paper No. 66

David Hamer, "Probabilistic Standards of Proof, Their Complements and the Errors that are Expected to Flow from Them," 1 University of New England Law Journal 71 (2004) (the web page gives the date of publication as 2007, but that's an error)

INFERENCE IN AND ABOUT SPACE & TIME

Peter Øhrstrøm & Per F. V. Hasle, TEMPORAL LOGIC: FROM ANCIENT IDEAS TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (Kluwer, 1995)

A link to Temporal Logic

Dov M. Gabbay, C. J. Hogger & J. A. Robinson, eds., EPISTEMIC AND TEMPORAL REASONING (Clarendon-Oxford, 1995) (Vol. 4 of HANDBOOK OF LOGIC IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND LOGIC PROGRAMMING)

INFERENCE AND CAUSALITY

Wesley C. Salmon, Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World (Princeton, 1984)

Judea Pearl, CAUSALITY (Cambridge University Press, 2000)

Glenn Shafer, THE ART OF CAUSAL CONJECTURE (MIT Press, 1996)

INFERENCE IN TIME: DYNAMIC INFERENCE

Jim Blythe, Decision-theoretic Planning (Feb. 11, 1999)

John L. Pollock, Evaluative Cognition

David Schum, Probability and the Processes of Discovery, Proof, and Choice, 66 Boston University Law Review 825 (1986)

Marilyn MacCrimmon & Peter Tillers, eds., The Dynamics of Judicial Proof: Computation, Logic, and Common Sense (Physica- & Springer-Verlag, 2002)

Peter Tillers, The Explosive Dynamic Complexity of Evidentiary Processes

Peter Tillers, The Fabrication of Facts in Investigation and Ajudication

A NEW WORLD: NATURE AS INFORMATION

[expansion of probability in the sciences -- e.g., DNA & string theory; I know too little to mention about matters such as string theory, but in the hands of the right person a discussion of "inference in law and nature as information" would be interesting]

On Probability and Uncertainty in Law

Some of the above material rearranged and mixed with some additional material:

Terence Anderson, David Schum & William Twining, ANALYSIS OF EVIDENCE (Northwestern U. Press, 2005)

D. Binder & P. Bergman, FACT INVESTIGATION: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO PROOF (1984)

Robert Burns, A THEORY OF THE TRIAL (1999)

L.J. Cohen, THE PROBABLE AND THE PROVABLE (1977)

J.S. Covington, Jr., THE STRUCTURE OF LEGAL ARGUMENT AND PROOF (2d ed. 2006)

Mirjan R. Damaška, EVIDENCE LAW ADRIFT (Yale, 1997)

Lorraine Daston, CLASSICAL PROBABILITY IN THE ENLIGHTENMENT (Princeton, 1988)

Keith Devlin, LOGIC AND INFORMATION (1991 & various reprints)

Umberto Eco & Thomas Sebeok, eds., THE SIGN OF THREE: DUPIN, HOLMES, PEIRCE, (Indiana U. Press, 1983, 1988)

James Franklin, THE SCIENCE OF CONJECTURE: EVIDENCE AND PROBABILITY BEFORE PASCAL (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001)

Lon L. Fuller, THE MORALITY OF LAW (1st ed., 1969; or 2nd ed., 1977)

Dov M. Gabbay, C. J. Hogger & J. A. Robinson, eds., EPISTEMIC AND TEMPORAL REASONING (Clarendon-Oxford, 1995) (Vol. 4 of HANDBOOK OF LOGIC IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND LOGIC PROGRAMMING)

Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin & Daniel Kahneman, eds., HEURISTICS AND BIASES: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INTUITIVE JUDGMENT (Cambridge U. Press, 2002)

Alvin I. Goldman, EPISTEMOLOGY AND COGNITION (Harvard, 1986)

Alvin I. Goldman, KNOWLEDGE IN A SOCIAL WORLD (1999)

Susan Haack, DEVIANT LOGIC, FUZZY LOGIC: Beyond the Formalism (1974 & 1996)

Susan Haack, EVIDENCE AND INQUIRY: TOWARD RECONSTRUCTION IN EPISTEMOLOGY (Blackwell, 1993)

Reid Hastie, Steven Penrod & Nancy Pennington, INSIDE THE JURY (1983)

Hermann von Helmholtz, 1866/1962 TREATISE ON PHYSIOLOGICAL OPTICS volume 2 (1866/1962, trans., by J P L Southall; New York: Dover) (see esp. pp. 264-301; originally published as HANDBUCH DER PHYSIOLOGISCHEN OPTIK (1866, Leipzig: Voss)]

Richard Jeffrey, THE LOGIC OF DECISION (University of Chicago Press; 1966 & 2nd ed., 1983)

John Josephson & Susan Josephson, ABDUCTIVE INFERENCE: COMPUTATION, PHILOSOPHY, TECHNOLOGY (Cambridge U. Press, 1994) (download the elegant discussion of abduction in Chapter 1 of this book by clicking on this link)

Joseph Kadane & David Schum, A PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE SACCO AND VANZETTI EVIDENCE (1996)

Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, CHOICES, VALUES, AND FRAMES (Cambridge U. Press, 2000)

John Maynard Keynes, A TREATISE ON PROBABILITY (Macmillan and Co., 1921)

Paul A. Kirschner, Simon J. Buckingham Shum & Chad S. Carr, eds., VISUALIZING ARGUMENTATION: SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR COLLABORATIVE AND EDUCATIONAL SENSE-MAKING (2003)

Arthur Koestler, THE ACT OF CREATION (Reissue edition, 1990)

Henry E. Kyburg, Jr. & Choh Man Teng, UNCERTAIN INFERENCE (2001)

Edward Levi, AN INTRODUCTION TO LEGAL REASONING (Chicago, 1962)

Richard Lowry, THE ARCHITECTURE OF CHANCE: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE LOGIC AND ARITHMETIC OF PROBABILITY (Oxford, 1989)

Lorenzo Magnani, ABDUCTION, REASON, AND SCIENCE: PROCESSES OF DISCOVERY AND EXPLANATION (2001)

James D. McCawley, EVERYTHING THAT LINGUISTS HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT LOGIC* *but were ashamed to ask (2nd ed., 1993)

Peter Murphy, EVIDENCE, PROOF, AND FACTS: A BOOK OF SOURCES (Oxford, 2003)

Alva Noë & Evan Thompson, VISION AND MIND: SELECTED READINGS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF PERCEPTION (MIT Press, 2002)

Peter Øhrstrøm & Per F. V. Hasle, TEMPORAL LOGIC: FROM ANCIENT IDEAS TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995)

Andrew Palmer, PROOF AND THE PREPARATION OF TRIALS (Thomson, 2003)

Judea Pearl, CAUSALITY (Cambridge University Press, 2000)

Chaïm Perelman, THE NEW RHETORIC: A TREATISE ON ARGUMENTATION (trans., John Wilkinson, University of Notre Dame Press, December 1969)

John L. Pollock, COGNITIVE CARPENTRY (1995)

John L. Pollock, NOMIC PROBABILITY AND THE FOUNDATIONS OF INDUCTION (Oxford, 1990)

John L. Pollock & Joseph Cruz, CONTEMPORARY THEORIES OF KNOWLEDGE (Rowman & Littlefield, 2d ed., 2002)

Karl R. Popper, CONJECTURES AND REFUTATIONS: THE GROWTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE (Basic Books, 1962)

Karl R. Popper , THE LOGIC OF SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY (any edition, including Routledge, 5th ed., March 29, 2002)

Karl R. Popper, CONJECTURES AND REFUTATIONS: THE GROWTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE (Basic Books, 1962)

Henry Prakken, Chris Reed & Douglas Walton, Argumentation Schemes and Generalisation in Reasoning about Evidence" [url needed]

Bernard Robertson & G.A. Vignaux, INTERPRETING EVIDENCE (Wiley, 1995)

Irvin Rock, THE LOGIC OF PERCEPTION (MIT Press, 1983)

David Schum, EVIDENCE AND INFERENCE FOR THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST (2 vols., University Press of America, 1987)

David Schum, EVIDENTIAL FOUNDATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC REASONING (Wylie, 1994)

D. Schum & P. Tillers, Marshalling Evidence in Adversary Litigation, 13 Cardozo Law Review 657 (1991)

Glenn Shafer, THE ART OF CAUSAL CONJECTURE (MIT Press, 1996)

Brian Skyrms, CHOICE & CHANCE: AN INTRODUCTION TO INDUCTIVE LOGIC (4th ed., 2000)

Peter Tillers, Mapping Inferential Domains, 66 Boston University Law Review 883 (1986)

Peter Tillers & Eric Green, eds., PROBABILITY AND INFERENCE IN THE LAW OF EVIDENCE: THE USES AND LIMITS OF BAYESIANISM (1988)

Peter Tillers & David Schum, Charting New Territory in Judicial Proof: Beyond Wigmore, 9 Cardozo Law Review 907 (1988)

Peter Tillers & David Schum, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, 24 University of California at Davis Law Review 931 (1991)

Stephen Toulmin, THE USES OF ARGUMENT (1958; 1st paperback ed., 1964)

William Twining, RETHINKING EVIDENCE: EXPLORATORY ESSAYS (Blackwell, Oxford, 1990)

William Twining & Iain Hampsher-Monk, eds., EVIDENCE AND INFERENCE IN HISTORY AND LAW (Northwestern U. Press, 2003)

Douglas N. Walton, LEGAL ARGUMENTATION AND EVIDENCE (2002)

David T. Wasserman, The Morality of Statistical Proof and the Risk of Mistaken Liability, 13 Cardozo Law Review 935 (1991)